Image: Samudrafresh / FIS

Export Situation of the Top 3 Global Shrimp Suppliers in the Early Months of This Year

WORLDWIDE
Friday, June 07, 2024, 07:00 (GMT + 9)

Preliminary export situation of the world's three main shrimp suppliers in the first quarter of this year, according to analysis by Mr. Willem van der Pijl, founder of Shrimp Insights.

Ecuador

Ecuador's shrimp exports have recorded impressive growth in recent years. While all of the world's major suppliers have struggled to maintain their export volumes, Ecuador has increased its export volumes significantly, albeit at a slower growth rate than in previous years. In 2023, exports increase by 14% and reach 1.214 million tons. However, Ecuador's export value in 2023 decreased by 5% to just under 6 billion USD.

Source: Pezcrup

China remains Ecuador's most important market. This is the market that consumes the majority of Ecuador's HOSO quality products. In 2023, exports from Ecuador to China increase by 17%, reaching 714,877 tons. China accounts for 59% of Ecuador's total export volume. Exports to Europe increased by 18%, while exports to the US increased by 17%.

As Chinese demand weakens, exports to other regions such as the US and EU increase. Increased exports to these markets mean there are more HLSO shrimp products and peeled shrimp products. The equivalent live weight of HLSO and peeled shrimp is greater than the export weight. Thus, if exports to China decrease and exports to the US and Europe increase, the decrease in exports does not necessarily mean that Ecuador's shrimp production decreases.

Source: Moojier -->

This is what happens in Q1 2024. Exports to China decreased by 27%, while exports to the US and Europe increased by 33% and 20%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2024, compared to the first quarter of 2023, the market share of the Chinese market in Ecuador's export turnover decreased from 63% to 49%, while the US market share increased from 16% to 22% and that of Europe from 14% to 18%. While Ecuador's total exports in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 8%, live weight-equivalent export volumes could remain unchanged or even slightly higher due to the higher share of HLSO and peeled products .

Suppose Ecuador's export trend in the first quarter of this year continues and the country's exports to the US and Europe increase. In that case, other suppliers will face fierce competition in the HLSO and peeled shrimp segments, and prices may remain under pressure.

India

India's shrimp exports in 2023 reached 712,914 tons, contrary to most expectations, up 1%, a slight increase compared to 2022. Raw frozen shrimp volumes increased 3% while value-added shrimp volumes ( steamed and breaded) reduced by 13%. Among frozen shrimp export raw materials, whiteleg shrimp accounts for 78% (up 3% compared to 2022), black tiger shrimp accounts for 5% (up 56% compared to 2022), wild-caught shrimp accounts for 8% (down 13% compared to 2022). Total export value decreases from 5.5 billion USD to 4.9 billion USD in 2023.

Source: AgrospectrumIndia

In the first quarter of 2024, India's shrimp export volume increased by 4% over the same period last year. While this is normally the least productive quarter of the year, the slight increase in output is again a sign that the agricultural situation in India is not as bad as expected.

The increase in volume mainly occurred in January and February, when export volumes increased by 9% and 19% year-on-year, respectively. In March 2024, exports decreased by 11% year-on-year.

<-- Source: SamudraFresh

In January and February of this year, export volume increased by 9% and 19% respectively over the same period last year. In March this year, export volume decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

In the first quarter of this year, India's whiteleg shrimp exports increased by 5%, black tiger shrimp increased by 7% and value-added shrimp increased by 13% compared to the same period last year. Black tiger shrimp exports are stable and wild-exploited shrimp exports continue to decrease by 13% over the same period last year.

The average export value per kg of raw L. vannamei shrimp showed a positive trend in Q1 2024. After falling almost continuously in 2023, prices increased slightly in the first quarter of the year. That shows, the value still decreased significantly compared to the first quarter of 2024. The total export value of raw L. vannamei shrimp in the first quarter decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year.

The average export price of raw white leg shrimp tends to increase in the first quarter of this year. After a steady decline in 2023, prices increased slightly in the first quarter of this year.

Regarding export markets, India continues to export mainly to the US and Canada. In the first quarter of this year, Indian shrimp exports to these two markets with whiteleg shrimp accounting for 46% of India's total shrimp exports, black tiger shrimp accounting for 23%, value-added shrimp accounting for 87%. While Ecuador is increasingly exporting to the US, Indian shrimp exporters must make efforts to maintain market share in the US market.

For black tiger shrimp, although in the first quarter of 2023, China and other Asian markets imported 50% of total exports. In the first quarter of 2024, it will decrease to 36%. The US and EU imported 23% and 27% of India's total black tiger shrimp exports in the first quarter of 2024, respectively.

Indian farmers mainly focus on large sizes, Asian markets have the potential to import Indian shrimp at reasonable prices. Therefore, it is possible that these markets will increase shrimp imports from India. The black tiger shrimp farming season starts in February and lasts 8-9 months. The peak harvest and export will probably not take place before the end of September or even October this year.

The US is still the largest export market for Indian shrimp, accounting for 40-50% of total export turnover, but India is losing market share to Ecuador. To stimulate growth, many Indian shrimp farmers have switched from white shrimp to black tiger shrimp. Black tiger shrimp production has exceeded 50,000 tons by 2023 and is expected to increase.

Indian shrimp processors invest in value-added products and fish processing to diversify their products. Most Indian shrimp processors are vertically integrated and concentrated in Andhra Pradesh.

Indonesia

Source: Shrimpfishery

Indonesia mainly exports raw whiteleg shrimp and value-added shrimp products to the US. However, strong competition from Ecuador is shaking Indonesia's position in the US market. Indonesia is not the main supplier of meat shrimp products to the US, however Indonesia is still an important source of raw HLSO shrimp (including EZP shrimp) and value added products (steamed shrimp and breaded shrimp).

Source: Pricesmart

Indonesia also faces strong competition from India, especially steamed shrimp and breaded shrimp products because India is aiming to diversify value-added products. Indonesia seems unable to diversify its export markets with raw whiteleg shrimp products and value-added shrimp. Although China sometimes imports large quantities, demand from China is unstable. Other Asian markets and the EU usually do not import much Indonesian shrimp.

Other shrimp products such as black tiger shrimp and wild-caught shrimp have a different trend. Indonesia exports black tiger shrimp and wild shrimp mainly to Asia (about 50%), especially Japan. But in 2022 and 2023, China has sharply increased imports from Indonesia. China is Indonesia's most important market. In the context of increased competitive pressure in the US, China's demand for Indonesian shrimp is a good sign for this country.

In the first quarter of 2024, Indonesian shrimp exports decreased by 8% over the same period. Whiteleg shrimp exports decreased by 18%, VAT shrimp decreased by 3%, black tiger shrimp decreased by 12%, and other frozen raw shrimp exports increased by 20%.

Source: Vasep (Translated from the original in Vietnamese)

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