All eyes are now turning to the next phase of the harvest. The Bering Sea B-season is scheduled to open at noon local time on June 10.

Japanese Imports of Alaska Pollock Surimi from the US Plummet to Historic Lows

JAPAN
Thursday, May 21, 2026, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

Weakening Yen and Surging Fillet Competition Squeeze Japanese Supply Chains

According to recent trade statistics from the Ministry of Finance and U.S. customs data, imports of 2025-production Domestic Annual Processing (DAP) Alaska pollock surimi into Japan have hit a striking low. Total arrivals of the 2025 product—spanning April 2025 to February 2026—are estimated at just 60,600 metric tons. This marks a massive drop from the 88,875 metric tons recorded for the 2024 product, signaling a sharp constriction in supply.

Because DAP cargo arrivals span nearly the entire year, shipments clearing customs in a single month frequently mix "A-season" and "B-season" products. However, the transition to the 2026 A-season moved exceptionally fast, with full-scale arrivals of newly produced surimi starting in Japan around March. Amidst this tight supply, the average cost has ticked upward. In February, frozen Alaska pollock surimi imports from the United States recorded an average Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) unit price of ¥447 per kilogram (approximately US$2.81 per kilogram), a 2% increase compared to the same month last year.

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Historical Shifts and Market Pressures

To understand the scale of the current slump, market analysts point to major resource shifts over the last two decades. In 2009, when Alaska pollock resources in the Bering Sea severely deteriorated, annual surimi production dipped below the 100,000-ton threshold to 86,878 metric tons. A steady environmental recovery followed, pushing production past 150,000 metric tons in 2012 to reach 166,992 metric tons. By 2015, the industry entered a boom period, sustaining a high output of over 200,000 metric tons for four consecutive years.

That momentum has since evaporated. A weakening Japanese yen has dramatically intensified local competition for raw fish against alternative commodities like fillets. Because both products share the same source material, producers have struggled to maintain the lucrative 200,000-ton surimi milestone, a challenging operating environment that persists today.

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Outlook for the Upcoming Seasons

Current projections indicate that overall production for this loop will fall drastically below the 85,206 metric tons recorded last season (which included Gulf of Alaska revisions). As of May 9 local time, recorded surimi production stood at 70,948 metric tons, a figure that excludes the Gulf of Alaska output. 

Alaska Pollock Factory Trawler. Photo: Genuine Alaska Pollock Producers

Because fishing activity in the Gulf of Alaska has been highly limited and catches remain low this season, experts note that even when final regional numbers are tallied later, they are highly unlikely to alter the broader downward trajectory.

Alaska Pollock on bard. Photo: YouTube

All eyes are now turning to the next phase of the harvest. The Bering Sea B-season is scheduled to open at noon local time on June 10. However, weather patterns pose a significant threat. Severe storms are a major concern during the latter half of the fishing calendar, leading industry participants to emphasize that it is highly preferable for Bering Sea operations to wrap up entirely within the month of August.

Classification Alaska Pollock on board. Photo: YouTube

🇨🇳 Simplified Chinese (简体中文)

日本自美国进口的阿拉斯加狭鳕鱼糜数量骤降至历史低点

日元贬值与鱼排竞争加剧挤压日本供应链

根据财务省的最新贸易统计数据和美国海关数据，日本对2025年产美国国内年加工量（DAP）阿拉斯加狭鳕鱼糜的进口量已跌至令人震惊的低位。2025年产品的总到货量（涵盖2025年4月至2026年2月期间）估计仅为60,600公吨。这与2024年产品记录的88,875公吨相比大幅下降，预示着供应的急剧收缩。

由于DAP货物的到货几乎跨越全年，在单个月份通关的货物经常会混合“A季度”和“B季度”的产品。然而，向2026年A季度的过渡速度异常之快，新生产的鱼糜在3月左右开始大举抵达日本。在如此紧张的供应局面下，平均成本有所抬头。2月，从美国进口的冷冻阿拉斯加狭鳕鱼糜录得平均到岸价（CIF）单价为每公斤447日元（约合每公斤2.81美元），同比上年同月增长2%。

历史变迁与市场压力

为了理解此次下滑的规模，市场分析师指出了过去二十年间的主要资源演变。在2009年，当白令海的阿拉斯加狭鳕资源严重恶化时，年鱼糜产量跌破了100,000吨的大关，仅为86,878公吨。随后环境稳步恢复，推动2012年的鱼糜产量突破150,000公吨，达到166,992公吨。从2015年开始，该行业进入繁荣期，连续四年保持了超过200,000公吨的高产出。

然而，那股势头此后便烟消云散。日元的持续贬值剧烈加剧了本地在相同生鱼原料上与鱼排等替代商品的竞争。由于这两种产品共享相同的原料鱼，加工商很难维持过去利润丰厚的200,000吨鱼糜产量里程碑，这种与鱼排等产品持续竞争的艰难经营环境一直延续至今。

未来季度的展望

目前的预测表明，本季度的整体产量将大幅低于上一季度记录的85,206公吨（该数据包含了阿拉斯加湾的修正值）。截至当地时间5月9日，录得的鱼糜产量为70,948公吨，该数字不包括阿拉斯加湾的产量。由于本季度阿拉斯加湾的捕捞活动非常有限且捕获量较低，专家指出，即使随后统计出该地区的最终数据，也极不可能改变整体下滑的大趋势。

现在所有的目光都转向了捕捞的下一阶段。白令海的B季度预计将于当地时间6月10日正午开启。然而，天气模式构成了重大威胁。在捕捞季节的后半段，强风暴是一个主要的隐忧，这使得行业参与者一致强调，白令海的操作最好能完全在8月份之内结束。

editorial@seafood.media
www.seafood.media

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