Photo: VASEP/FIS

Vietnam's Seafood Exports Surge, Navigating US Tariff Challenges and Intensified Chinese Competition

VIET NAM
Thursday, May 08, 2025, 00:10 (GMT + 9)

A strong recovery in the first four months of 2025 sees significant export growth, particularly to the US, but looming tariffs and increasing competition from China present a complex landscape, according to Ms. Le Hang of VASEP.

Vietnam's seafood exports demonstrated a robust recovery in the first four months of 2025, reaching a turnover of USD 3.3 billion, a substantial 21% increase compared to the same period in 2024. As reported by Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), April alone contributed significantly with a turnover of USD 894.2 million, marking a 15% rise. However, this growth is uneven across product groups and markets, occurring within the context of tariff uncertainties emanating from the United States, which poses considerable challenges for the sector.

Shrimp remained the dominant export, generating USD 1.27 billion in the first four months, a notable 30% year-on-year increase. April's shrimp exports reached USD 358.9 million, up by 25%. This resurgence was primarily fueled by heightened demand in key markets including China, the EU, and Japan, alongside a recovery in shrimp prices driven by the rebalancing of global supply and demand dynamics.

Pangasius exports ranked second, achieving a turnover of USD 632.7 million, a 9% increase over the four-month period. April's figures for pangasius reached USD 174.2 million, showing a modest 3% growth. Tuna exports reached USD 304.2 million, a marginal 1% increase over four months, with April's turnover remaining stable at USD 86.3 million compared to the same period last year. Other fish categories, including tilapia and red tilapia, experienced a significant 20% increase, reaching USD 679.6 million in the first four months, with April contributing USD 171.6 million, a 14% rise.

Squid and octopus exports amounted to USD 216.4 million in the first four months, an 18% increase, with April showing a 22% growth to USD 54.1 million. Shellfish continued its strong upward trend, reaching USD 83.1 million, an impressive 82% increase, with April's exports at USD 21.1 million, up by 36%. Conversely, other mollusks saw a 33% decrease in April, falling to less than USD 0.5 million, although the cumulative four-month figure still showed a slight 5% increase. Exports of crabs and other crustaceans surged by 50%, reaching USD 112.1 million, with April alone reaching USD 27.6 million, a 21% increase.

Analyzing market performance, China and Hong Kong remained the top consuming regions, importing USD 709.8 million worth of Vietnamese seafood in the first four months, a substantial 56% increase. April's imports by these regions reached USD 173.3 million, up by 23%. Japan secured the second position with imports valued at USD 536.6 million (up 22%), with April's figure reaching USD 134.9 million, a 13% increase.

The US market recorded imports of USD 498.4 million, a 7% increase over the same period, with April reaching USD 153.6 million, up by 8%. Despite this return to growth following a slower first quarter, exports to the US continued to be demonstrably affected by reciprocal tariff policies and the implementation of new technical barriers.

In contrast, the EU market saw a turnover of USD 351.5 million (up 17%) for the four-month period, although April experienced a 15% decrease, reaching only USD 76.8 million. South Korea's imports reached USD 264.1 million (up 15%), with April showing a slight 2% increase to USD 64.2 million. ASEAN emerged as a particularly strong growth area, with a 25% increase to USD 218.8 million in the first four months, and a dramatic 68% surge in April alone, reaching USD 68.2 million.

The Middle East, however, was the only market to register a decline in both April (USD 22.8 million, down 26%) and the cumulative four-month figure (USD 105.4 million, down 8%), attributed to weaker demand. Other markets collectively contributed USD 615.1 million, a 13% year-on-year increase, with April alone reaching USD 200.4 million, up by 35%.

Navigating the Uncertain Landscape of US Tariffs

The US reciprocal tariff policy, imposing high anti-dumping duties reaching up to 46% on certain products, is exerting significant pressure on Vietnam's seafood exports. Key products like pangasius and shrimp, heavily reliant on the US market, are particularly vulnerable. These tariffs inflate product costs, prompting US importers to explore alternative supply sources such as India and Ecuador. Furthermore, technical barriers, including stringent food safety testing and traceability requirements, are eroding Vietnam's competitive edge in this crucial market.

Nevertheless, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and other Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are providing Vietnam with a degree of mitigation by facilitating market expansion into the EU, Japan, and ASEAN regions. Vietnamese businesses are also proactively adapting their strategies, focusing on the production of value-added seafood products and diversifying their export markets to lessen their dependence on the United States.

Source: VASEP

Anticipated Trends for the Coming Two Months

Looking ahead to May and June 2025, Vietnam's seafood exports are projected to experience a notable shift in focus prior to the implementation of the new US reciprocal tariff policy scheduled for July 9, 2025. Vietnamese enterprises are expected to prioritize boosting exports to the US, particularly key commodities like shrimp and pangasius, to maximize gains before the increased tariff costs take effect. Consequently, export turnover to the US market is anticipated to rise by 10-15% compared to April 2025, driven by hastily finalized contracts and a strategic reduction in prices aimed at maintaining market share.

Conversely, exports to other significant markets such as China and ASEAN are likely to experience a slowdown, with projected growth of only around 3-5%. This stagnation is primarily attributed to the escalating competition from Chinese seafood products. Faced with high tariffs in the US, Chinese producers are increasingly shifting their focus to their domestic market and neighboring regions like ASEAN, thereby reducing the attractiveness of Vietnamese products in these areas. While the EU and Japan are expected to maintain stable growth (approximately 8-10%) due to the advantages conferred by free trade agreements, this growth is unlikely to fully compensate for the anticipated slowdown in exports to China and ASEAN.

editorial@seafood.media
www.seafood.media

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