The global surimi market is undergoing a major structural shift as U.S. exports fell in 2025 to their lowest level in nearly 14 years, while Russia rapidly expanded production and strengthened its foothold in key Asian markets.

Even a sharp rise in shipments to India failed to offset weakening demand from traditional buyers Japan and South Korea, where importers adopted a more cautious approach. However, industry analysts say the primary driver behind the decline in American exports is supply-side restructuring led by Russia’s pollock sector.

Photo: RRPK

Russia Nears Historic 100,000-Ton Milestone

According to the Pollock Association (Pollock Fishermen), Russian surimi production could grow by 20–25% in 2026, exceeding 100,000 tons for the first time in the country’s history. By the end of 2025, production had already reached 89,000 tons, marking a 26% year-on-year increase. The previous year saw even faster expansion, with output rising 47% in 2024, though growth moderated in 2025 following the sharp surge.

Industrial surimi production in Russia only began developing in 2020, yet in under five years the country has become one of the world’s top five producers, capturing an estimated 7–10% share of the global market, according to the Pollock Catchers Association (PCA).

Russian pollock surimi has rapidly penetrated export markets. It now accounts for approximately 50% of the South Korean market and around 25% of the Japanese market, according to Oleg Moskvin, Commercial Director of the Russian Fishery Company (RFC or RRPK).

The expansion has been driven by large-scale onboard processing capacity and new vessels entering service. At RFC, surimi production rose 43.5% in 2025 to 60,400 tons, while Gidrostroy Group produced approximately 25,500 tons and plans to increase capacity to 30,000 tons by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Vichi-Rus, producer of crab sticks under the Vici brand, reported a nearly 15% increase in output year-on-year.

China’s Market Share Shift Accelerates

The restructuring is particularly evident in China, where Russian-sourced fish paste has steadily increased its share of imports, reaching a dominant position. A widening price gap has gradually eroded the cost competitiveness of American surimi.

For Chinese processors, expanded Russian supply offers greater price stability and ample availability, helping companies control production costs. However, reliance on a concentrated supply base raises potential risks tied to quotas, sanctions, or logistical disruptions.

In Japan, Russian suppliers have gained competitiveness through pricing and supply reliability, while U.S. exporters have relied more heavily on traditional customer relationships and brand recognition to defend market share.

Photo: Stockfile/FIS

Domestic Russian Demand Also Climbs

Russia’s surimi boom is not limited to exports. Of the 89,000 tons produced in 2025, about 21,000 tons (24%) were consumed domestically, fully covering processor and retailer needs, according to PCA.

Between January and September 2025, sales of surimi products in Russia rose 18% year-on-year in monetary terms to 42 billion rubles (approximately $462 million) and 7% in volume terms to 85,000 tons, according to analytics firm NTech.

During the same period, overall fish product sales declined 2% by weight to 715,000 tons, though they increased 16% in value to 476 billion rubles (about $5.24 billion).

Surimi was the only major fish category to show positive growth in both value and volume. Caviar sales also grew, increasing 13% in value to 34 billion rubles (around $374 million) and 16% in volume to 31,000 tons.

From January to October 2025, sales of surimi products rose 20.3% in value and 10.3% in volume, according to Nielsen. In the fourth quarter alone, sales of crab meat and crab sticks increased 12.8% and 10.1%, respectively, year-on-year, according to the OFD Platform.

Retailers including Metro and Pyaterochka (X5 Group) reported rising demand, with some chains posting 7–10% volume growth in 2025.

Global Market Growth Continues

The expansion in Russian production coincides with broader global growth. According to Fortune Business Insights, the global surimi market reached $4.57 billion in 2025, is projected to grow to $4.85 billion in 2026, and could reach $7.83 billion by 2034.

Besides Russia and the United States, other major global producers include Vietnam, Thailand, and India, according to PCA.

Photo: Stockfile/FIS

Structural Pressure on U.S. Exporters

With global pollock quotas generally stable, Russia continues to commission new vessels and expand processing capacity. Industry observers warn that unless the United States achieves breakthroughs in cost reduction or product differentiation, its share in Asian markets may continue to decline.

Although India is expected to remain a bright spot for American exporters in 2025, its import growth will not be sufficient to offset reduced demand in Northeast Asia. As global surimi consumption remains heavily concentrated in East and Southeast Asia, shifts in regional supply dynamics are poised to determine future export trends.

The rapid transformation of the industry underscores a broader realignment in seafood trade, with Russia emerging as a dominant force in a market once led largely by American and Southeast Asian producers.