Only a few days into Trump's term, and even the tuna industry is anticipating the impact of his policies

What impact does Trump's new tax policy have on Vietnam's tuna exports?

VIET NAM
Thursday, February 13, 2025, 04:00 (GMT + 9)

Vietnam's tuna industry concluded 2024 with robust export performance, achieving a turnover of US$989 million, a 17% increase compared to 2023.

The US remains the largest importer of Vietnamese tuna, accounting for over 39% of total export turnover. However, trade policy developments, particularly potential tariffs imposed by the US, are a significant concern for Vietnamese exporters, according to Nguyen Ha, Tuna Market Expert at the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).

US Tuna Import Trends and Vietnam's Growing Role

The US market relies heavily on imported tuna, with Vietnam emerging as the second-largest supplier after Thailand, according to the International Trade Center (ITC). Previous tariff actions on Chinese tuna products created opportunities for alternative suppliers, including Vietnam. While subsequent years saw fluctuations due to the Covid-19 pandemic and economic factors, Vietnam's 2024 tuna export turnover to the US still represents a 72% increase compared to eight years prior.

Vietnam's Tuna Export Profile and Market Dynamics

In 2024, Vietnamese tuna exports to the US demonstrated continued growth. While frozen tuna meat/loin exports to the US showed consistent growth, exports of processed and canned tuna were more volatile, particularly in the latter half of the year.

Source: VASEP

In the canned tuna segment, Vietnam ranks as the third-largest supplier to the US after Thailand and Mexico. Recently, the US has reduced imports from Mexico while increasing imports from Vietnam. Notably, Vietnam has become the leading supplier of canned tuna to the US foodservice sector, surpassing China.

In the frozen tuna meat/loin segment (HS030487), Vietnam is the second-largest supplier to the US, trailing Indonesia but ahead of Thailand. US imports of this product from Thailand are declining, while imports from both Vietnam and Indonesia are increasing.

Potential Impact of New US Trade Policies

Recent trade actions could influence US canned tuna prices and consumer purchasing power. Canned tuna in oil imported into the US faces tariffs ranging from 12.5% to 35%, with exceptions for countries with preferential trade agreements. The USMCA, which provides preferential tariffs to Mexico and Canada, remains in effect. However, unsuccessful negotiations with these countries could lead to reduced tuna imports from them, particularly Mexico.

Similarly, Chinese tuna exports to the US would be significantly impacted by additional tariffs.

Analysts suggest that trade dynamics favor Vietnam. Should the US restrict imports from other countries, it would likely increase reliance on alternative suppliers. Vietnam, with its competitive advantages, is well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities and further penetrate the US tuna market.

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