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Photo: VASEP/FIS
Impact of Trump’s Re-Election on Vietnam’s Shrimp Exports to the U.S.
VIET NAM
Thursday, November 14, 2024, 06:30 (GMT + 9)
The U.S. is the largest single shrimp import market for Vietnam, accounting for 20% of its total shrimp exports.
 As of October 15, 2024, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the U.S. had reached nearly $600 million, a 10% increase over the same period in 2023, reports Ms.Kim Thu, a Shrimp Market Expert at the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).
During the first three quarters of 2024, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the U.S. totaled $566 million, marking a 9% growth year-over-year. Although exports declined by 7% in the second quarter, they rebounded in the third quarter with a 19% increase, driven by reduced inventory, stronger demand for the year-end holidays, and an improving economic outlook in the U.S.
Product Breakdown and Price Trends
In the U.S. market, Vietnamese shrimp exports consist mostly of whiteleg shrimp (85.5%), followed by black tiger shrimp (8.9%), and other varieties. The processed black tiger shrimp segment recorded a 44% growth in export value, while fresh and frozen other shrimp types showed the strongest growth at 188%.
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Source: VASEP
During the same period, the average export price of frozen whiteleg shrimp to the U.S. ranged from $9.6 to $10.3 per kg, while black tiger shrimp ranged from $14.9 to $19.3 per kg. The third-quarter price of whiteleg shrimp increased slightly compared to the second quarter but remained lower than 2023 levels. Conversely, the average price of black tiger shrimp decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting some instability.
 U.S. Shrimp Import Market and Competitive Landscape
According to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), U.S. shrimp imports totaled 550,162 tons, valued at $4.3 billion, in the first nine months of 2024—a 4% drop in volume and a 10% decrease in value from the previous year. However, Vietnam performed relatively well, with shrimp imports into the U.S. showing a more positive trend compared to its competitors, such as India, Ecuador, Indonesia, and Thailand.
Vietnam has developed over time products with very high added value and very good quality. Photo: 'Potato' Shrimp 300g, ==>
India remains the U.S.'s largest shrimp supplier, exporting 213,520 tons worth $1.6 billion. However, this represents a 1% decrease in volume and a 7% decrease in value compared to 2023.
Antidumping and Countervailing Duties on Shrimp Imports
On October 22, 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) announced final results for antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations on frozen warmwater shrimp imports. While Vietnamese shrimp faced a lower CVD rate (2.84%) compared to India (5.77%), Ecuador received positive AD results but an average CVD tax of 3.78%. Indonesia saw favorable CVD outcomes but received an average AD tax of 3.90%. Overall, Vietnamese shrimp recorded more favorable results than the other countries in these DOC assessments.
'Nobashi' shrimp
Potential Impact of Trump’s Re-Election on Vietnam’s Shrimp Exports
President Trump's re-election could influence U.S. import policies, including those for seafood. His proposed tariffs—10% on all imports and 60% specifically on Chinese goods—could affect consumer prices, potentially raising them across various sectors and creating broader economic ripple effects, such as possible GDP declines and employment impacts.
In the global trade arena, a renewed focus on the U.S.-China trade relationship could alter the dynamics of agricultural trade, given China’s role as a leading market for various products. For Vietnam’s shrimp industry, the outcome may be a mix of opportunities and challenges, depending on the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and how the broader trade environment shifts under his leadership.
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